Tanzania's stance on the export of its bananas to South Africa has taken South African trade analysts by surprise and alarmed some South African banana farmers.
What Tanzanian media depicts as a "trade row" leaves South Africa nonplussed, arguing Tanzania's punitive actions make no sense and that there cannot be a ban on a product with no à priori market access.
The process to negotiate access for Tanzanian bananas to South Africa is incomplete without a pest risk analysis, especially in light of banana fusarium wilt tropical race 4 (TR4) present in northern Mozambique
Last week Hussein Bashe, Tanzanian minister for agriculture, 'warned' South Africa that the country had lost patience after five years of negotiations to secure market access for their bananas, and that it was a replay of the "long struggle" they had faced in obtaining avocado access to South Africa which, the minister claimed, had been resolved only when Tanzania began to impose reciprocal restrictions.
Minister Bashe reportedly cited extensive unsuccessful diplomatic engagements to negotiate access for Tanzanian bananas. "We cannot continue to tolerate this unfair treatment. While negotiations are ongoing, we must act in defence of our economic interests." He gave Pretoria and Lilongwe one week to lift the unspecified trade restrictions the two countries had allegedly placed on Tanzanian agricultural products.
An agricultural economist points out that South Africa waited twenty years for its red meat to be given the go-ahead to Saudi Arabia. These processes always take years.
The Fresh Produce Import Association of South Africa (FPIA) states that it recognises no grounds for Tanzania's claims that South Africa is refusing their bananas, for which, in fact, the market access procedure has not been completed.
Fruit, fertilisers, humanitarian grain banned
Yesterday, a week on, in a televised address, Minister Bashe announced an immediate ban on all agricultural produce from South Africa and Malawi, with particular emphasis on South African apples, "following the two countries' failure to lift trade restrictions on Tanzanian farm products". Allegations that South Africa was "restricting" Tanzanian agricultural produce could not be verified.
"No Tanzanian will die for lack of grapes or South African apples," the minister declared. The country imports between 30,000 and 40,000 12.5kg cartons of South African apples annually. "This is a matter of protecting our business. This is trade, and mutual respect is non-negotiable", adding that maize (corn) purchased in Tanzania for humanitarian purposes in Malawi would also not be permitted to leave the country.
He continued: "Malawi was scheduled to begin collecting fertiliser from Tanzania for their planting season starting May 1, 2025. That will not happen. No fertiliser will be allowed to cross into Malawi."
Pest risk analysis needed for Tanzanian bananas
According to the Fresh Produce Import Association of South Africa (FPIA), South African phytosanitary authorities enjoy good relations with their Tanzanian counterparts. The association clarifies that Tanzanian bananas do not currently have access to South Africa.
"The process is clear, and would involve a pest risk analysis according to International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) standards," says Marianna Theyse, FPIA general manager.
Tanzania does not have banana fusarium wilt tropical race 4 (TR4), a quarantine pest, nor does South Africa, but it has been found in northern Mozambique, lying between South Africa and Tanzania. South Africa's Department of Agriculture calls this one of the most destructive banana diseases in recorded history. "The risk that Fusarium wilt TR4 poses to the South African banana industry is immense."
Theyse adds: "Tanzania's plant health authority ably assisted their avocado industry to successfully complete the usual market access process." Tanzanian avocados have counterseasonally been exported to South Africa over the past four years. In 2023, Tanzanian avocados to the value of US$1,380,000 were exported to South Africa, a rise of 145% over the year prior.
South Africa has 12-month banana supply
In contrast to avocados, South Africa has a twelve-month banana supply from itself, Mozambique, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and Zambia, while Namibia is also establishing bananas. FPIA says that none of their members have indicated being approached by Tanzanian exporters testing the waters for the viability of exporting bananas to South Africa.
The Banana Growers Association of South Africa was completely unaware of Tanzania's desire to supply bananas into what they regard as an already oversupplied market. "The Banana Growers Association was not and is not consulted by the South African government in these matters, which are evidently disappointing and concerning to the continued existence of the industry. The reality is that the local banana industry is under heavy pressure from Mozambique and Eswatini, among others, to keep its head above water," says Jan Lourens, a banana farmer in Komatipoort.
"South Africa has an agricultural trade surplus against Tanzania," notes agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo. "In South Africa's agricultural imports of US$7,6 billion in 2024, Tanzania accounted for 0,4% (or roughly US$28 million). Tanzania's main agricultural exports to South Africa are tobacco, tea, nuts, coffee, and ginger, not bananas. Thus, initiating trade friction over a hold-up on a product that is not a significant export to a country may not be ideal."