The latest crop estimate by Fundecitrus indicates that orange production in São Paulo's citrus belt, Triângulo Mineiro, and southwest Minas Gerais is projected to reach 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes in 2025/26. This marks a 36.2% increase compared to the prior season. This rise addresses the current scenario of limited orange juice stocks, with projections showing inventories below strategic levels by July 2025.
If processing activities align with the harvest increase, inventories by July 2026 might approach safer levels for global supply. Consequently, prices paid to producers, which peaked in the previous crop, particularly in October 2024, may not maintain those levels. However, quotations are expected to remain above the historical average.
The production estimate increase is attributed to a higher number of producing trees and improved weather conditions. Fundecitrus reports a 7.5% increase in producing trees, from 169.9 million to 182.7 million, compared to the previous season.
Source: Cepea