The avocado market has entered a critical phase, and forecasts for the coming months leave no room for optimism. According to Giorgio Donnarumma, sales manager of the Milan-based Nuovafrutta, the Hass avocado sector from Peru is experiencing a sharp drop in prices, caused by an explosion in supply that will last at least until week 37 (beginning of September).
Peruvian Hass avocados
The main issue is the doubling of incoming volumes from Peru compared to last year, with a strong concentration in June, July, and August. The logistics data speak for themselves: Europe is preparing to receive significantly more containers than in 2024, particularly of large grades (10, 12, 14), which are usually more in demand in Southern Europe. "We are currently selling Peruvian Hass avocados at €9, but the price was higher ten days ago. The trend is downward," Donnarumma explains.
The trend seems to be unstoppable, with a dynamic of product accumulation, declining quality, and selling pressure that could turn some of the supply into second-rate products. The consequence is a "price battle" that risks penalising the entire supply chain, from producers to distributors.
South African Pinkerton avocados
Boom of large grades
Adding to the complexity of the situation is the uneven distribution of grades. "Supply is particularly abundant when it comes to large grades (10-12-14-16), while smaller sizes (18, 20, 22) are scarce and more in demand mainly in supermarkets, where there are constant special offers. Grades 24 to 32 will show declining prices, and there will be a lot of availability until the end of July, destined for Northern and Eastern Europe or the net industry," says Donnarumma.
South African Pinkerton Avocado
"This imbalance has a direct impact on demand: The market in Southern Europe, traditionally oriented towards grade 12, is saturated and prices are plummeting despite the attempt by large importers to psychologically resist the drop."
Pinkerton and green varieties recovering slightly
It is a different story for South African Pinkerton, which has seen a slight upturn in prices after a difficult few weeks due to the arrival of low-quality Kenyan product. "The purchase price is currently between €10 and €11. Even greenskin varieties such as Fuerte, Zutano, and Ettinger, which had hit historic lows around €5, are regaining ground and returning to purchase prices of between €8 and 9. What makes the difference here is the reduction of flows to Europe, which allows for a stabilisation of quotations and better stock management."
Kenyan Pinkerton avocados
Tense scenario expected until September
The Peruvian avocado season officially started in April with low volumes, but it usually gets into full swing from June. Donnarumma is clear: "If we don't sell at aggressive prices, the goods will pile up in warehouses, with real risks for the whole supply chain. Today we are selling at €8, but in a week's time, we could see the price fall. Volumes will increase exponentially between now and week 32."
Peruvian Ettinger avocados
For more information:
Nuovafrutta
Via Cesare Lombroso 54
20137 Milan - Italy
[email protected]