Serbia remains a leading exporter of frozen raspberries by value, but faces a challenging 2025 season with declining yields. According to EastFruit, Serbia's key competitors, Poland and Ukraine, are hopeful for better prices despite weather impacts on their plantations. Yulia Tymoshenko from "Tiferet" in Moldova notes high European prices for frozen raspberries at around €4.6 per kg, yet they are scarce. EastFruit explores several potential price scenarios.
Serbia, particularly the Arilje region, has been a dominant player in the global frozen fruit market. However, experts predict adverse weather, disease pressures, and aging plantations will reduce output, potentially disrupting supply-demand balance and influencing prices. Agricultural experts forecast a 20-30% yield drop in 2025, with some suggesting yields could resemble those from 30 years ago.
Unpredictable weather, including spring frosts and excessive rainfall, has affected raspberry crops. Early 2025 frosts harmed budding plants, while heavy rains increased fungal disease risk, such as gray mold. Viral diseases like Raspberry ringspot virus, along with aphids and nematodes, have further impacted yields, causing smaller fruits and weakened plants. Many plantations are over a decade old, and the lack of investment in disease-free seedlings has compounded yield losses. Economic pressures, high input costs, and labor shortages have led some farmers to abandon raspberry production, reducing the total cultivation area.
Serbian growers expect fresh berry prices of at least €3.5 per kilogram, contingent on frozen raspberry prices exceeding €5.0-5.5 per kilogram. However, this is uncertain given the cyclical nature of pricing.
Andriy Yarmak from FAO's Investment Centre notes that Serbia focuses on summer-bearing varieties, which suffered damage in both Serbia and Poland, potentially keeping frozen raspberry prices high in Europe. Ukraine, with autumn-bearing varieties, escaped major damage, although summer varieties there may show lower productivity compared to 2024.
Despite high price expectations, Yarmak cautions that processors face risks. Past price collapses were driven by changing food industry purchasing patterns, with manufacturers switching to cheaper alternatives like strawberries. This trend may continue, leading to potential price declines in the frozen segment starting January 2026.
Given production shortfalls in Poland and Serbia, Ukraine could become a global leader not just by net export volume but also by total export volume of frozen raspberries in 2025/26.
Source: EastFruit