Analysts from EastFruit have examined the ramifications of 2025's weather conditions on sweet and sour cherry harvests in Eastern Europe and Turkey, a key exporter. The region suffered severe frost in April, leading to a decline in production. Damage varied, but current estimates are viewed as realistic.
Andriy Yarmak, economist at the FAO's Investment Centre, highlights, "Another important factor to consider when evaluating price trends for sweet cherries and sour cherries in 2025 is the ongoing reduction in orchard areas dedicated to these crops within the European Union. Due to increasing risks in cherry production, particularly from frequent frost-related crop losses, older orchards are gradually being uprooted and are not being replaced."
In Ukraine, late April frosts led to losses, with sweet cherries losing 35–40% of the crop, especially in the south. Sour cherry losses stand at 20–25%. The country has increased reliance on imports due to past disruptions, raising local sweet cherry prices.
Poland faced frosts in late April and early May, with sour cherry losses at 50–55% and higher losses in sweet cherries. While not a major fresh cherry exporter, Poland's frozen cherries are gaining international market presence.
Turkey experienced temperature drops to -15°C between April 10 and 12, resulting in a projected 50–70% harvest reduction. Prices for sweet cherries are expected to rise significantly during the main harvest season.
Hungary saw frosts affecting 90% of fruit farms, with an 80–90% decrease in sweet cherry harvests, prompting processors to seek frozen sour cherries from Central Asia.
Romania experienced nighttime temperatures of -8°C from April 6 to 11, leading to a 70–80% reduction in cherry harvests, necessitating imports even during the domestic season.
In Moldova, Yulia Tymoshenko from "Tiferet" notes, "In Moldova, the main damage to sweet cherry and sour cherry crops occurred during the first and second waves of frost." Preliminary estimates suggest 30–40% losses, with some areas facing complete crop failure.
Uzbekistan's potential to replace Turkey in the market is limited due to logistics, high Russian prices, and seasonal mismatches.
Source: EastFruit