The Almond Board of Australia's March position report provides insights into almond shipment volumes and destinations, similar to practices by the Almond Board of California. March marked the start of the new crop marketing year, with Australian sellers shipping approximately 7.7k metric tonnes. This figure is 15% less than March 2024 and 3% behind March 2023, though it remains strong historically, outside those years. The 2024/25 campaign ended as a record season for Australia, with total shipments at 169.5k mt and a carryover of 4k mt.
China continues to play a key role as a destination amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Shipments to China reached nearly 2k mt, comprising a quarter of all shipments but showing a 22% year-over-year decline. India also remains a buyer, with 1.35k mt shipped, reflecting a 12% year-over-year decrease. In Western Europe, 755 mt were shipped, with Spain receiving 426 mt. Meanwhile, 822 mt headed to the Middle East, including 760 mt for Turkey.
Prior to the Australian harvest, the Almond Board of Australia estimated the 2025/26 production at 155.5k mt, slightly above the previous year. An April update suggested a 10-20% reduction from estimates, though the baseline for this expectation remains unclear. Calculations suggest a range of 124.4k-154.8k mt, with final assessments due by September-October. A market participant noted, "Considering the lower production and tight carryover, matching the shipment pace from last year is incredibly unlikely."
Source: Mintec/Expana