Mexico's potato production for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (July–June) is estimated at 2.28 million metric tons (MMT), up 4% from MY 2024/25, largely due to seasonal rains that eased drought conditions in several potato-producing states. Total planted area is estimated at 63,000 hectares, including 17,500 ha in Sonora, the country's leading production state.
Total domestic consumption is forecast at 2.78 MMT, 3% higher than the previous marketing year, driven by growing demand for U.S. fresh potatoes. Imports of fresh potatoes are projected to reach 0.225 MMT, a 5% increase, reflecting rising consumption.
Production has grown at an average annual rate of 3.6% over the past five years. However, Sonora and Sinaloa continue to face severe drought, which may result in smaller potato sizes and limited yield gains. In MY 2023/24, production reached 2.12 MMT, a 7% increase year-on-year, due to expanded planted area. The top five producing states, Sonora, Sinaloa, Veracruz, Puebla, and Estado de México, accounted for 76% of national output.
Despite the potential for above-average yields, labor shortages, especially in Sinaloa, pose a significant challenge. Increased acreage has strained harvest labor availability, raising concerns over harvest efficiency and potential losses. The president of the National Confederation of Potato Producers warned of possible market oversupply and price drops. Growers also voiced concerns over phytosanitary risks linked to U.S. imports and the continuing impact of regional drought.
In MY 2025/26, fresh table consumption is expected to reach 1.50 MMT, with 0.59 MMT allocated to food processing (mainly chips) and 0.37 MMT to frozen potatoes. High food inflation and health-driven dietary shifts have slowed consumption growth. Mexico's annual inflation rate reached 3.80% in March 2025, while food inflation rose to 4.19%, up from 2.38% earlier in the year. Supply fluctuations throughout the year lead to seasonal price spikes, particularly in late calendar months, prompting consumers to substitute with cheaper alternatives like corn and beans.
Per capita fresh potato consumption has remained stable at 14–16 kg annually over the past decade. Industry stakeholders believe consumption could increase by ensuring a consistent supply and pricing year-round.
Overall, while production and consumption are set to rise modestly in MY 2025/26, ongoing challenges, labor shortages, drought, and price instability continue to affect Mexico's potato sector.
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