South Africa's potato and onion industries are showing signs of cautious optimism for the 2025 season, following a year marked by climate challenges, input cost pressures, and constrained export opportunities. The Autumn 2025 Absa AgriTrends report highlights key developments and expectations shaping the outlook for these two staple vegetable sectors.
Onion supply outpaces demand in 2024
The 2024 onion season began with a firm supply following increased plantings driven by favourable conditions in 2023. However, this oversupply quickly put pressure on prices as domestic demand was insufficient to absorb the additional volume.
Compounding the issue, major export destinations such as Namibia and Botswana imposed import bans, severely limiting trade opportunities. Political instability in Mozambique further complicated export logistics. Despite onions being one of the few South African vegetables with significant export potential, these market barriers dampened the 2024 outlook.
Looking ahead, Absa forecasts a price recovery for onions in 2025, supported by improved export prospects. In particular, Botswana's recent easing of its import restrictions is expected to boost demand. However, prices are not expected to return to the record highs seen in 2023.
"We expect onion prices to recover in the 2025 season, though not to 2023 levels," the report notes.
Potato sector weathers climate shocks
South Africa's potato growers faced severe climate stress in 2024, starting with drought conditions in the Eastern and Western Free State during critical crop development phases. These disruptions were followed by a black frost in Limpopo during peak harvest, triggering fears of nationwide shortages and sharp price hikes.
While widespread shortages were ultimately avoided, total potato output declined by 3.08% for the year. The reduced supply pushed prices upward, peaking at R10,066 per tonne in October 2024.
Encouraged by higher price levels, growers are expected to expand planting slightly in 2025. At the same time, production costs—especially for diesel and fertiliser—are projected to decline modestly, easing some financial pressure. However, rising electricity tariffs may continue to impact profit margins.
"Production expenses in 2025 are expected to be marginally lower than in 2024," the report concludes, suggesting a more stable but still challenging environment for growers.
Source: Food for Mzansi