As predicted last year, this year's 10-person barbecue for Memorial Day will cost over $100 for the first time according to the annual Rabobank BBQ Index. For 2025 the BBQ Index is 4.21 percent more expensive this year than last. Comparably, in 2018, $73 was spent on the average barbecue and in 2025 it's $103–up 41 percent. The index saw contributions from more than 80 North American analysts.
"The main reason for this uptick in prices is mostly related to factors outside of the trade wars which are going on within each sector," said Tom Bailey, senior consumer foods analyst for Rabobank, who adds that the barbecue consists of one burger, one chicken sandwich; both have lettuce and tomato, some cheese, some chips, two beers, a soda, and ice cream.
Those factors include the increase in farm costs and labor costs; realigning global trade flows; regulatory costs associated with changing ingredients; general economic uncertainty and more. "That said, the trade war will not burn your summer barbecue. The barbecue is very insulated from this," says Bailey. In all, over 90 percent of the barbecue's ingredients are produced in the U.S.
In produce, Rabobank's senior analyst fresh produce David Magaña focused on three key produce items.
Lettuce: Lettuce prices have stabilized after a few rollercoaster years and are one of the items in the index that have actually gone down–this year by 1.21 percent. "Weather shocks are quickly reflected in volatile prices. Though lettuce saw a smooth spring transition from the desert to the central coast and that led to flatter prices than previous transition periods," he says, noting the transition is usually when there are supply gaps and price spikes.
He also notes that leafy greens are less reliant on international trade. "They are less susceptible to impacts from tariffs as about 95 percent of the lettuce consumed in the U.S. is grown domestically," Magaña says.
Tomatoes: Conversely, tomatoes are likely to see the highest increase in price more than any other topping in the index. Prices could increase by 16.87 percent later this summer compared to last year.
Historically, per capita consumption of tomatoes in the U.S. has been around 20 lbs./person/year in the past 25 years, making what some consider to be a mature market. "There are some changes in the category. The U.S. has been increasingly relying on imports," he says, adding that in 2000, 3/10 tomatoes consumed in the U.S. were imported. In recent years, that's moved to 7/10 tomatoes being imported. Of all the U.S. fresh tomato imports, 90 percent come from Mexico.
Meanwhile, the 2019 U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement recently saw a development in that the U.S. Department of Commerce announced its intention to withdraw from the agreement. "That means that starting on July 14, fresh tomatoes from Mexico would be paying 21 percent duty," says Magaña. 
As he notes, domestic production of tomatoes in Florida runs from October/November to May-June, amounting to one in every five tomatoes consumed in the U.S. at this time of the year. California and other states ramp up production in May/June until October/November and contribute one in every four tomatoes in the U.S. market mainly during the summer. Meanwhile, tomato production from Canada significantly overlaps the California season and contributes between 10-12 percent of the fresh tomato supply between May-September.
"Meanwhile the market share of Mexican tomatoes in the U.S. reaches its lowest levels, around 55 percent during July, the month in which the suspension agreement is expected to end. So tomato prices this year have been lower year on year given that supplies have been up, but that may change later this summer. They may become more expensive if we have any trade disruption," Magaña says.
Avocados: Though not formally on the BBQ index, avocados have seen a rapid increase in consumption in the U.S., though it's believed there's significant room for growth in U.S. consumption. Right now, the average consumption rate is 9 lbs./person/year–Mexico and Chile for example have rates of about 20 lbs/person/year.
This year, challenging weather events produced lower availability on Mexican product and pushed up prices to more than 100 percent in the first quarter of the year, even though avocado companies have diversified sourcing from other regions. "However U.S. avocado imports from countries other than Mexico have to pay 10 percent while Mexico does not," says Magaña.
That said, California is having a strong avocado season with its largest crop since 2020 with equally strong prices. "This year has also seen the largest gap between large avocados and small-sized ones. Larger ones are in very short supply with weather to blame from both heat and drought which limited fruit development for the 2024-2025 crop," says Magaña. "So if consumers want affordable avocados, look for small sizes because they will likely be on special." 
The state of the consumer
In all, Bailey noted that affordability of food is increasing against other cost of living components. "Despite wage growth finally outpacing inflation in just recent quarters, the reality is that real wage growth is still below 2 percent and we need twice that to catch up to the 30 percent cumulative inflation since COVID," says Bailey.
Of note, Bailey also notes that it's nearly five times more expensive for consumers to eat out of the house than to eat at home. "We're certainly seeing transaction data a little lower at restaurants," he adds.
What is also of note is the growing economic disparity among U.S. consumers. "The grill is still hotter than Americans' paychecks. While 1/2 of the country is still looking for ways to stretch their dollars and keep cookout costs low, the other half may be shopping for premium cuts of meat and fancy beverages," says Bailey.
With that in mind, private-label products continue to emerge as a popular option with consumers. Bailey notes that private label sales exceeded 20 percent market share in grocery for the first time ever last year and hard discount retailers such as ALDI have seen the highest growth over the last 12 months–it's up 7 percent approximately in transactions compared to overall retail which has been flat.
For more information:
Melanie Bernds
Rabo AgriFinance
[email protected]
https://research.rabobank.com/